New PDF release: China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and

By Wenpu Li (auth.)

ISBN-10: 9811002266

ISBN-13: 9789811002267

ISBN-10: 9811002274

ISBN-13: 9789811002274

This e-book is a quarterly forecast and research document at the chinese language financial system. it's released two times a yr and offers ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a study undertaking on the heart for Macroeconomic examine (CMR) at Xiamen collage. according to the CQMM version, the examine staff forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP progress, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas alternate. whilst it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic guidelines in China. as well as assisting readers comprehend China’s financial pattern and coverage advisor, this ebook has 3 major ambitions: to aid readers comprehend China’s financial functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2015

Example text

It means that the current macroeconomic regulation should pay more attention to the improvement of factors which can affect the long-term potential growth rate, such as speeding up the process of economic reform, encouraging technological innovation, upgrading the industry structure, promoting labor productivity and so on, instead of just focusing on the short-term stimulus of the total demand. Secondly, the potential growth rate can be promoted by increasing the share of mixed-ownership economy, improving the relative labor productivity of the tertiary industry and accelerating the accumulation of human capital.

China’s economic growth rate has been declining gradually since then. With the changing economic environment abroad and at home, and with the thirst for crossing the middle-income stage and for becoming a modern developed economy, China’s people pay close attention to the trend of economic growth. In the short term, this concerns the setting of economic development targets in the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), the realization of income-doubling plan, and the strategic goal of building a moderately prosperous society.

In spite of the increasing speed of liberalization reform, the low efficiency of resources allocation in financial sector still existed. With the improvement of market-oriented reform, private investment became the main driving force to maintain stable growth of investment in fixed assets, to improve the efficiency of investment, and to stabilize economic growth. Since 2012, the growth rate of private fixed assets investment had always been faster than that of whole social fixed assets investment. Moreover, the structure of private investment had also been gradually improved: investments in the primary and tertiary industry increased rapidly, and the growth rate of investment in equipment manufacturing and high technology manufacturing also increased sharply.

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China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2015 by Wenpu Li (auth.)


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